杭州西湖富营养化模型的不确定性分析

Uncertainty Analysis of Eutrophication Model in West Lake, Hangzhou

运用结合了灵敏度分析的Monte Carlo方法对西湖富营养化生态模型不确定性进行了定量分析。通过模型不确定性分析,为管理决策者提供了有价值的信息,包括模型输出值的统计分布信息以及各种管理策略和整治措施所能实现目标的可能性方面的信息。根据这些信息,管理者可以客观评价并选择合适的管理策略和整治措施,在可接受的风险水平上进行决策。

Quantification analysis of uncertainty is performed for Eutrophication Ecosystem Model of West Lake using the Monte Carlo methods which are combined with sensitivity analysis. Quantifying uncertainty associated with the application of the eurtophication model can provide valuable information for decision-makers. First, it provides statistic information of model outputs. Second, it provides information on the possibilities of taking management strategies and control measures to achieve an objective. According to these information, manager can evaluate the measures taken objectively and select appropriate strategies and control measures, then make decisions on the level of risk acceptable.