ARIMA模型在旋转机械振动预测中的应用

Forecast of the trend of vibration of rotating machinery by using ARIMA model

分析了旋转机械振动的特点和ARIMA模型的建立及其他相关问题,阐述了利用ARIMA模型对旋转机械振动趋势序列进行预测的步骤和方法,并利用VC++6.0编程实现了自动建模和预测等功能.实例表明:对于满足该模型适用条件的非平稳序列,利用ARIMA能够准确将其通过差分变成平稳序列,因而能够对该序列进行精确的多步预测.

The characteristics of vibration of rotating machinery,the method of setting up ARIMA model and some related issues are analysed.Then followed by introducing the method and process to forecast the trend of vibration of machine by using ARIMA model.Automatic modeling and forecasting are achieved through a program in VC++6.0.The example in the article tells us that,the model which fits for the ARIMA model can change unstable series into stable one by difference.Thus makes the precise multistep forecast of the series.