香港银行业开办人民币业务的风险评估

Evaluation of the Risks Faced by Hongkong Banking in the Operation of RMB Business

香港市场上人民币流通的规模变化,对于人民币业务开办的风险评估结论具有明显的影响。在渐进式的离岸业务推进模式下,当前可能会在特定的业务领域形成监管的模糊地带,但是总体上不会形成明显的风险隐患。通常而言离岸业务对于信息披露的要求较低,因而应当加强内地与香港的反洗钱合作。从当前的市场环境判断,当前香港市场上不会出现大规模的人民币对港币的替代。香港离岸的个人人民币业务的开展会对在岸的人民币业务形成一定的竞争,这种竞争压力随着香港离岸市场业务范围的扩大而继续增大。随着香港人民币离岸市场规模的不断扩大和业务范围的拓展,离岸人民币市场对于内地金融管制的冲击力会提高。从长期来看,随着人民币在香港流通规模的扩大,应及早研究人民币流通扩大背景下香港的金融体系改革战略问题。

The change in the scale of circulation of RMB in Hong Kong market has an obvious impact on the conclusion of risk evaluation of the operation of RMB business. Within the framework of gradual promotion of offshore business, supervision areas of blurred demarcation lines may at present appear in specific lines, but on the whole, main hidden risk will not be formed. Usually, offshore business demands less information exposure, and therefore, we should reinforce the cooperation between the main land and Hong Kong in fighting money-washing. Judged by the present market environment, on the Hong Kong market, currently there will not appear huge amount of RMB in replacement of Hong Kong dollars. The offshore operation of individ- ual RMB business will constitute a certain competition between that and the mainland RMB business, a competition whose pressure will continue to increase as the scope of offshore business in Hong Kong is broadened. With the increase of the said scale and business scope, the impact of the offshore RMB market upon the financial control in the hinterland will increase. In the long run, on account of the enlarging of RMB circulation in Hong Kong, a study should, at an early date, be made of the fi- nancial system reform strategy.