我国粮食问题的基本判断

Basic Judgment about Prvoisions Problem of China

目前我国粮食市场供求关系正由过去的结构性过剩向供求基本平衡转化,粮食生产已进入了一种新型的受市场竞争影响的稳步发展时期。粮价上涨是合理的市场供求调整,对宏观经济运行不会产生重大影响;粮价上涨有利于农民增收,促进整个经济的良性互动。今后粮食价格走向主要取决于粮食产量,粮食产量将处于一种受自然灾害影响并通过价格表现的波动状态,粮食价格恢复性上涨是必然趋势,粮食价格不会大起大落,但波动永远存在,而且在很大程序上将与全球粮食价格水平同步变化。

At present,chinese provisions mavket is transforming basic balance from structural surplus,provisions production is entering a new safe developing period receiving effect of market competition.provisions price rise is reasonable adjustment by market,it is unable producing important effect on macroeconomics function;provisions price rise profits farmer adding income,accelerates benignity interation on whole economy.In future,provisions price's tend toward will depend on provisions output,provisions output will find oneself in a undulate state receiving effect of nature disaster and acting by price.provisions price resuming rise is inevitable tendency,it will not happen strong wave,but wave exists forever,and will,change in step with global provisions price.