中国的地震灾害损失预测

ESTIMATING LOSSES FROM EARTHQUAKE DAMAGE IN CHINA

估计某个地区未来将会遭到多大的地震灾害损失.对于减轻地震灾害是十分重要的科学问题.因力地震预防和救灾的基础是对未来地震灾害的定量估计.地震灾害主要由两方面因素决定.一方面是未来地震动强烈程度的估计(地震危险性分析).另一方面是各个地震动等级对社会、经济、人口等所造成的损害程度估计(地震易损性分析). 本文介绍了以上两方面研究工作的进展,以及国家地震局“未来地震灾害损失预测研究组”试编的中国未来50年地震灾害损失预测图及其应用.讨论了在灾害预测方面所遇到的科学问题.

A key question that must be addressed in earthquake hazard reduction is:How much loss might a city or region suffer in future earthquakes? There are two components comprising the basic structure of a loss estimate study.One component,the seismic hazard analysis,in- volves the identification and quantitative deseription of strong ground motion of the earthquakes to be used as a basis Tor evaluating losses.The second component,the vulnerability analysis,entails analysis of the vulnerability of buildings and other man-made faeilities to earthquake damage and the losses that may result from this damage. This paper presents the latest research results carried out by the research group of esti- mating losses from future earthquakes,Department of Earthquake Disaster Prevetion of SSB, particularly the new loss maps from future 50 years earthquakes in China.Some scientific problems in loss study are disscussed.