影响大肠癌预后的病理因素—应用微机行多因素逐步回归分析

Computer Study of the Pathologic Factors Influencing Prognosis in Large Bowel Carcinoma—A Multifactorial Analysis

收集我院有随访结果的大肠癌根治手术后病例431例。病理观察记录采用全国大肠癌病理分析卡.项目归并为14项36个因素。因素量化后输入微机,按低标准 F=2.0和高标准 F=9.0两种方法,分别筛选出判断预后有意义的因素建立数学模型Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ、Ⅳ方程。按方程计算出■≥3.0时预后较好,可望存活5年以上。■<3.0时则预后较差,存活在5年以下。筛选出对预后影响较大的因素有低分化腺癌、粘液腺癌、癌浸润肠壁深度、间质细胞及纤维反应、淋巴结转移情况等。经考核组内检验准确率为83.9～91.9%。组外检验准确率为82.9～88.5%。

The relationship between pathologic factora and postoperative survivals was analysed by computer in 431 patients with large bowel carcinoma.Two equations for evaluating the prognosis were obtained standards as that acco- rding to 2 different methods:low standard (F=2.0)and high standard (F=9.0).Their accurate rates of the two equations were 91.9% and 83.9% in the intra-group check-up,88.5% and 82.9% in the extra-group check-up. The results showed that low-differentiated adenocarcinoma,mucous carcin- oma,invasion depth,fibrous proliferation,lymphoplasma infiltration and metastasis to lymphnodes,were the main factors for the prognosis.