摘要
综述了滑坡破坏概率的基本原理和实施方法 ,由于影响滑坡稳定性的因素的复杂性和随机性 ,将概率统计的理论运用在剩余推力法上 ,推导了滑坡破坏概率的模型 ,用Monte Carlo法来模拟随机变量的分布。以浙江张村滑坡为例 ,该滑坡正处于蠕滑阶段。敏感性分析表明地下水位的变化对滑坡破坏概率影响很大。因此模拟和监测滑坡位移和地下水位的变化必须立即进行 ,相应的防治措施必须考虑。
This paper summarizes the principle of failure probability of landslide. Due to complexity and randomness of the factors which affect landslide's stability, this paper uses statistical method and probability analysis to establish the model of failure probability of landslide on the base of the unbalanced driving-force method. The Monte-Carlo method is used to simulate the distribution of the random variables. A case study shows that Zhangcun landslide is creeping. Sensitivity analysis shows that the changes of groundwater level affect the failure probability of landslide greatly. Therefore monitoring and simulating the displacement of landslide and the groundwater level should be done as soon as possible, and proper remediation measures must be taken into consideration.
出处
《安全与环境工程》
CAS
2004年第2期1-4,13,共5页
Safety and Environmental Engineering
基金
浙江省科学技术厅重大科技攻关招标项目
浙江省突发性地质灾害预警预报及应用示范研究项目
教育部科学研究重点项目(No :0 3 0 3 4)
