基于时空分析的贫困丘陵山区耕地变化机理研究

Change of the Cultivated Land and Driving Forces in Poor Mound Region Based on Spatio-temporal Analysis

在地理信息系统技术的支持下 ,利用耕地面积变化时间序列模型、耕地动态度模型、耕地重心变化模型等 ,对湖北省咸宁市耕地的时间变化和空间变化特征进行了定量的研究 ,并应用主成分分析法 ,选择 2 3个因素对其驱动因子进行了相关分析。结果表明 ,耕地变化主要受经济因子、人口。

This paper analyzes the spatio-temporal change of cultivated land by using the dynamic degree of cultivated land and cultivated land center model. Then the driving forces are found by principal component analysis. The result indicates that the growth of population and economic development are dominical factors for the change of cultivated land.