汇率制度选择的经济与非经济原则分析

An Analysis on the Economic and Non economic Principles for the Choice of Exchange Rate Regime

新兴市场经济国家的实践表明,汇率制度的选择不仅要考虑诸如政策的自主性、促进贸易与投资、货币替代等经济原则,同时也必须考虑政治制度、政党制度、大选等非经济原则。此外,国际经济环境和政策协调也是非常重要的因素。中国作为经济高速增长的发展中国家,目前保持人民币汇率的稳定是现实的选择。同时,考虑到长期发展和市场开放的需要以及国际政策的协调,应当在适当的时期内,逐步推动人民币汇率的形成机制的市场化,增加汇率机制的弹性,这既可以缓解外部政治压力,也符合国家的长期利益。

According to the practice of emerging market countries, the choice of exchange rate regime should take into consideration not only the economic principles such as the independence of monetary policy, trade and investment promotion and monetary replacement, but also non-economic principles such as political system, party system and general election. Besides, the environments of international economy and policy coordination should also be taken into account. Since China is a country with fast growing economy, stabilizing the RMB exchange rate is the best choice at present. At the same time, as far as the long-term development and international policy coordination are concerned, the RMB exchange rate forming mechanism should be more market oriented and the elasticity of exchange rate mechanism should be increased in appropriate period of time in the future, which can relieve the pressure of exterior politics and is in conformity with the long-term interests of the nation.