加速缓解“三农问题”的人口战略与对策——从开展对农村部分计划生育家庭实行奖励扶助制度试点工作说起

Population Strategy and Countermeasures to Speed up the Improvement of Disadvantaged “Triple Agri-Status":Taking the Trial Implementation of Rewarding Assistant to Partial Rural Families Implementing Family Planning Policies as a Starting Point

以对中国劳动力将长期过剩的分析判断为基础 ,本文提出中国人口战略应以加速推进人口零增长和缩减人口总量进程为宗旨 ,分析了笔者提出的两个百年人口目标的意义以及依此来制定政策措施对加速缓解“三农问题”的重要性 ,提出了以加速推进农村社会保障来进一步降低人口增长的主张和措施 ,论证了这一主张和有关措施的经济合理性以及对提高农村全面小康社会建设之水准的意义。

Based on the analytical judgment of long term trend of oversupply of labor force, this paper: 1)suggests that China should choose such strategic measures as to accelerate the course toward zero and then negative growth of population; 2)analyses the significance of the next two century's population targets put forward by the author of this paper and the importance of formulating policies and measures by basing on the two targets to speed up the improvement of disadvantaged “triple Agri status'; 3)proposes the stand and some concrete measures that are to reduce population growth by promoting rural social security course, and discusses its economic reasonableness and necessity to achieve higher level of the construction of a comprehensive Xiaokang society This paper also refutes some misleading viewpoints on the issues of population ageing and elderly supply as well as improper policy stands which are lack of the backing of demographic economics and welfare economics