模糊层次分析法在Duber Khwar项目风险评价和投标决策中的应用研究

Study on application of Fuzzy-AHP in risk evaluation and bidding decision-making of Duber Khwar hydropower project

本文提出了以层次分析法和模糊数学为基础的国际工程投标风险评价与决策的模型 ,包括 :国际工程投标风险的辨识、风险评价及投标决策的过程。结合巴基斯坦DuberKhwar水电工程项目的投标实例 ,确定了模型中的参数并进行了分析计算 ,结果合理。通过此模型能为决策者提供有力的支持 ,从而为正确的投标决策提供定量依据。

The model of risk assessment and decision-making for international project bidding based on AHP and fuzzy mathematics is pressented in this paper, including the process of risk identifcation of international project bidding, risk analysis and decision-making for bidding.With the example of duber Khwar hydropower project bidding, parameters in the model were established amd analysis and calculation were carried out.The conclusion is proved to be reasonable. Such model supplies the convincing supports to the decision maker, and as a result, supplies the quantitative basis for successful bidding decision-making.