经济全球化下经济周期波动的新特征

The New Characteristic of Business Cycle In Economic Globalization

中国经济是否过热再次成为国内外争论的焦点。本文试图在经济全球化大背景下,探讨经济周期出现的新特征,经济全球化下经济周期的新特征可以概括为三点:一是经济周期波动幅度减小;二是经济周期延长;三是经济周期趋同化。当前中国刚结束的一轮经济周期也出现了新的特征:从波动性质上看,本轮是一个“增长型”周期,波动幅度大大减小;从波动的长度看,本轮周期比以往周期要长,而且是一个短扩张、长收缩的周期;此外,世界经济周期对我国经济周期的影响也不断加大。经济周期出现的新特征,需要政府对经济周期的调控作出相应的调整。

Economic Globalization is the most important characteristic of our times, which can not be hold up. Business cycle takes on several new characteristics under this trend. First, Business cycle fluctuates more feebly; Second, Business cycle is longer than before, The third, Business cycle happen at the same time in different country. In China, Business cycle takes on similar characteristics. The government's policy should adjust to these new characteristics.