农民纯收入影响因素的实证分析

Quantity analysis on the influential factors in the net income of rural households

利用格兰杰因果关系检验技术就农民纯收入的主要影响因素进行了定量分析,在此基础上,又利用协整分析建立了农民纯收入的数量模型。结果表明,与农民纯收入存在因果关系的因素主要有3个:经济作物播种面积占比、农作物总播种面积、农产品收购价格。其中,经济作物播种面积占比影响最大,农作物总播种面积影响居其次,而农产品收购价格变动的影响为最小。最后,就农民增收提出了政策建议。

The primary influential factors in the net income of rural households is stuted,by using Granger testing and establishes a model for the net income of rural households by making use of co-integration testing. The conclusions are that: There are causality between the net income of rural households and the proportion of industrial crop sown area or the total sown area or the purchasing price indices of farm product. With regard to influential degree, the proportion of industrial crop sown area occupies first place, the total sown area comes second, the purchasing price indices of farm product is final. Finally, the paper brings up the policy suggestion for increasing peasant income.