摘要
一种中期降雨预报方法是采用数理统计方法,根据500、700、850hPa3个等压面上逐日高空气象要素进行预见期为3日的流域逐日平均降雨量预报。该方法先对若干代表年的降雨资料进行客观的分型,再对各雨型根据统计方法分别建立预报方程。潘家口水库的预报结果表明,该预报方法简单易行,对资料条件要求不高,预报结果可供水库实际防洪调度参考。
A statistical approach is designed to forecast rainfall with a 3-day lead time on basis of factors from 500-hpa, 700-hpa and 850-hpa climate fields. The procedure to set up the forecasting equation includes three steps: the first is the partition of the storm-type. The second is the estimation of forecasting equation for each storm type. The application of the proposed method is presented by data observed in the basin called Zhangjiakou in the north of China. Results showed that the approach is easy to use with relatively higher precision and less requirements on data. It is applicable to the medium-term rainfall prediction for practical usage.
出处
《水力发电》
北大核心
2004年第4期15-17,共3页
Water Power
关键词
中长期水文预报
高空气象要素
统计方法
分雨型
预报方程
medium-term rainfall prediction
climate factors
statistical method
storm-type
forecasting equation
