测控SARS流行趋势的流行病模型研究

Study of SARS epidemic model on prediction and control

SARS时疫对中国社会的发展产生了重大影响 本文以2003年7月以前世界卫生组织、中国卫生部以及香港卫生署等公布的有关SARS疫情数据为依据,将数学模型与计算机相结合提出了控制其传播的模型,研究和预测其发展趋势 并根据各参数对疫情的影响用北京、山西两个SARS重点疫区的疫情作了分析 从最大发病人数及发病时间的分布,说明了预防措施对SARS控制的有效性 数据模拟结果表明了模型。

SARS epidemic had vital influence on the development of Chinese Society. This research is based on the data given before July 2003 by the organizations of WHO, the hygiene ministry of Chinese Government, and the hygiene office of Hongkong Government According to the data, we studied to forecast the trend mathematically and pointed out that this model can be used to control the transmission of SARS. The epidemic situation of Beijing and Shanxi Province is analyzed according to each of their parameters. The result of the data indicates the correctness of the model and the way of calculation.