消费条件模型和各地区消费条件指数

Consumption Facility Model and Provincial Consumption Facility Indexes

本文建立了一个消费条件模型来考察影响我国人均消费水平变化的各种因素 ,包括交通运输和通讯等基础设施条件、城市化水平、消费者信用手段的发展、社会保障体系的发展 ,以及收入分配差距等等。模型发现城市化水平是在收入水平以外对人均消费影响最大的变量。交通运输和通讯设施条件也对消费有重要影响。银行卡普及率和养老保险的普及有正的影响 ,而以吉尼系数表示的收入差距可能具有负影响。基于模型取得的对消费影响的经验参数 ,作者建立了一个中国各地区消费条件指数 ,对各省市自治区的消费条件状况进行刻画。

In this study we construct a Consumption Facility Model to investigate the impact of various factors on per capita consumption in China. The econometrical outcome of the model indicates that the level of urbanization is the most influential non-income factor on per capita consumption. Transport and telecommunication facilities have important impacts on consumption. The prevalence of bankcards (and, possibly, the coverage of the pension system and the level of labour mobility) also has positive impacts. Income disparity, indicated by Gini coefficients, may have negative impact on per capita consumption. Based on the empirical estimates, we establish a Provincial Consumption Facility Index to rate the conditions of consumption facilities in China's provinces. This index will be useful for indicating the trend of consumption variation in different provinces.