放弃成本、政府偏好与资本控制:一个审慎的机会主义汇率制度选择模型

A Prudent Opportunistic Choice Model Of Exchange Rate Regime

本文在Obstfeld(1 996)第二代货币危机模型的基础上 ,建立了一个考虑经济结构、供给冲击以及金融风险的多因素汇率制度选择模型 ,以成本分析为工具解释了资本控制、各类成本和政府偏好对均衡的影响以及对汇率制度选择的影响。研究表明 :(1 )资本控制可以通过多种途径对均衡产生影响 ,在一定条件下可以利用资本控制措施使经济避免多重均衡 ;(2 )放弃成本对汇率制度选择发挥关键作用 ;(3 )较大的政府偏好促使政府选择固定汇率制度 ,在放弃成本不足够大的条件下 ,决策者也可以通过提高政府偏好或者实施资本控制措施来保护本国固定汇率制度 ;(4)对人民币现行汇率制度的放弃成本的估计表明 ,当前人民币汇率制度放弃成本正处于中间水平 ,因此有必要增大政府对固定汇率制度的偏好并且对资本帐户实施适度管理以保持人民币汇率的稳定 ,防范金融风险。至于未来人民币汇率波动幅度的扩大、资本项目自由化的进程以及人民币汇率制度何时回归真正的“管理浮动” 。

We extend the additional costs from the Obstfeld's second generation model of currency crises with self-fulfilling features and present a model of exchange rate regime choice concerned the economic structure, the economic shock and prudent regulation. Our model based on the costs analyzing is to sheds lights the impacts of capital controls, abandon cost and government preference on the economy equilibrium and exchange rate regime choice. The research shows that capital controls may affect the economy equilibrium through many paths. The capital controls can increase the possibility of currency crises. On the other hand, control measures also can decrease the possibility of crises and sustain the fixed exchange rate regime more stable only if on the certain condition described in the context. Second, the model explains the impacts of capital controls, abandon costs and government preference on the exchange rate choice. The abandon cost plays the important role in the exchange rate regime choice. Here decision-makers also can pay some costs and buy financial security for their nation if on the certain condition mentioned as following under which capital controls can prevent crises. Finally, we use a simple empirical analysis on the abandon cost of existing RMB exchange rate regime, which shows that the RMB exchange rate regime is now in harmony with the capital account management and when we can adopt the more flexible exchange rate regime may be decided by decreasing of abandon costs of the RMB exchange rate regime.