货币政策动态优化模型的修正——兼论模型不确定性影响

Modifying for Monetary Dynamic Optimization Model and the Effects of Model Uncertainty

在传统的最优货币政策动态优化问题中,将货币政策工具对不同目标变量影响的先后次序引入货币当局的损失函数,并在以参数不确定性形式给出的模型不确定性条件下,运用斯文森方法给出了最优的货币政策规则;同时进一步讨论了模型不确定性对最优货币政策规则的影响.货币政策乘数的不确定性将导致最优货币政策规则具有保守性;较高的经济持续性将导致积极的最优货币政策规则.

The sequence of reactions of inflation and output gap to the changes in the monetary policy instrument is considered in loss function of the dynamic optimization problem regarding monetary policy. Svensson's Method is used to achieve optimal monetary policy rule under model uncertainty, in the form of uncertainty about the coefficients in the model. More uncertainty in policy multiplier leads to a more conservative and less activist policy. More persistence in economic leads to a more activist policy.