税收增长的动态回归分析

The Dynamic Regression Analysis on the Tax Growth

利用过去25年间税收收入和GDP数据,建立自回归分布滞后模型进行短期及长期税收弹性分析.估计结果不仅支持了近几年我国税收高速增长主要是恢复性增长的观点,而且说明短期内税收增长具有较大惯性,此外也揭示出经济增长最终决定税收能否长期保持增长态势.

Using the data of the tax revenue and GDP in the past 25 years, the author established an auto|regressively distributed lag (ADL) model to make short|run and long|run analyses of tax elasticity. The estimating results not only backed the view that the rapid tax growth is mainly recovery growth, but also proves that increasing tax has inertia in short time. They also disclosed that the continuous growth of tax revenue in long|run period essentially depends on economic growth.