基于低抽样率的公路交通OD实用模型研究

Practical Model of Highway Traffic OD Based on Small Sample Ratio

传统的OD推算模型需要较大抽样率的子样来推求母体,针对OD调查过程中的复杂性,本文在研究了OD调查设置原则的基础上,运用最小二乘法和极大似然法分别推出了低抽样率(<5%)情况下的公路交通OD实用计算模型,并对其可靠性进行了分析。最后,通过常州市公路交通OD对模型进行了验证,结果表明,该模型的应用能极大地简化OD调查并能保证较高的精度,在实际操作中具有明显的优势。

The traditional model of highway traffic OD needs large sample ratio,so the operation is very complex. After a study on the principle for OD survey, a practical computation model of highway traffic OD is put forward by applying the method of the least square algorithm and the maximum likelihood on the condition of small sample ratio,less than 5 percent,in this paper,followed by credibility analysis. At last, the model is validated by highway traffic OD of Changzhou, the result shows that the model can make the OD survey simple and also insure a high precision, so it has obvious advantage in practical operation.