基于Rough Set理论的铁路货运量预测

Prediction of Railway Freight Volumes Based on Rough Set Theory

利用RoughSet理论通过对数据进行分析和推理发现隐含知识的优点,在结合该理论与铁路货运量预测要求的基础上,提出一个基于RoughSet理论的铁路货运量预测流程;合理选择统计指标并将相关原始数据代入预测流程涉及的各步骤后,得出预测我国铁路货运量发展水平的规则集;利用该规则集预测了"十五"期间我国铁路货运量的发展水平;该规则集有望在我国"十一五"规划的制定中发挥一定的参考作用。

Rough Set Theory can find some potential knowledge by data analysis. Combining Rough Set Theory and the demand of prediction of railway freight volumes, we bring forward a procedure of prediction using Rough Set Theory. Some indicators and their corresponding statistical data are taken into account during the use of the procedure of prediction. As a result, a rule Set concerning prediction of railway freight volumes is achieved. We employed the rule Set to predict railway freight volumes of China during the Tenth-Five-Year plan period. The rule Set is expected to have some effect on the establishment of the Eleventh-Five-Year Plan.