俄罗斯转轨以来经济走势的公共选择分析

Analysis of Economic Orientation Public Poll since the Introduction of Russian Transition

俄罗斯经济转轨以来经历了长期的转型性经济危机,并于1999年出现经济复苏和恢复增长的势头,这一势头持续至今。这种经济形势的变化和俄罗斯转轨以来的政策博弈和公共选择过程密切相关。首先,公共选择博弈使俄罗斯的“休克疗法”转轨政策失败,进而把制度安排锁定在非效率的结构中,这是俄罗斯转型性经济危机程度深而且时间长的重要原因;其次,2000年以来俄罗斯社会趋于稳定,公共选择程序和机制在向有序化和建设性方向发展,经济形势也随之好转,并有望保持下去。

Rus- sian economy experienced a long-term transitional economic crisis since the introduction of its transi- tion. In 1999, an economic resuscitation emerged along with restorative growth and the momentum has persisted until now. These economic changes are closely related to the process of policy game and public choice since the inauguration of Russian economic transition. First of all, public poll game made a fiasco of the Russian 'shock therapy' and further fixed the institutional arrangements in an in- efficient structure, which was an important cause for the deep and prolonged economic crisis in Rus- sian transition. Secondly, Russian society has become stable since the year 2000,and the public poll procedure and mechanism have been developing along orderly and constructive lines. As well, the eco- nomic situation has turned for the better, and is likely to last for some time.