近2000a来古里雅冰芯记录及19～20世纪的气候变暖

Ice Core Records in the Past 2000 Years and Climate Warming during the 18th～20th Centuries

利用古里雅冰芯近2000a来的温度代用资料,用奇异谱分析方法对气候变化的趋势及人类活动造成的影响进行了分析,指出近2000a来气候一直在变暖,这是气候的自然变暖过程.同时分析结果显示,工业革命以来,人类活动对气候的增暖十分明显.正是因为气候的自然变暖和人类活动影响的叠加,才使得20世纪成为过去2000a来最温暖的100a.

Based on the temperature proxy data in the past (2 000 years) recorded in the Guliya ice core and SSA, climate variation trends and effect of human activities are analyzed. It is found that there was a gradually warming trend in the past (2 000 years). Such natural warming process seems already reaching the warmest phase at the present. However, it is also demonstrated that the human-induced warming has been significant since the industry revolution. Because of the superposition of the natural warming and the human-induced warming, the 20^(th) century was the warmest 100 years in the past (2 000 years).