南极半岛近百年气温的年代际振荡

Interdecadal Oscillation of Temperature in the Antarctic Peninsula in the Last 100 Years

利用南极半岛及邻近地区(30°～70°W,50°S以南)气象观测资料较好的12个站,建立了该地区近百年的气温距平序列.结果表明:1)近百年南极半岛气温有3个跃变点,分别在1919—1923年1947—1953年和1976—1982年之间,两个跃变点之间的稳定气候阶段的平均长度约30a左右;2)各阶段平均气温成阶梯式的上升,近百年年气温增加了0 730℃,但增温幅度各季不同:冬季最大,夏季最小;3)南极半岛年冰密集度指数倾向率为-0 2053·(10a)-1,而且夏半年(12～翌年5月)比冬半年(6～11月)大;4)南极半岛温度与它的冰密集度指数呈反相关,夏季、秋季和年的相关系数都超过了5%信度.

In this paper, by use of the monthly mean temperature data of 12 stations in the vicinity of Antarctic Peninsula, the temperature series during 1903_2000 is founded and the interdecadal oscillation of the temperature are discussed. The results indicate that there were three jumps in 1919_1923, 1947_1953 and 1976_1982 in the recent hundred years and the stable climate step between two jump points lasted for about 30 years. Annual mean temperature increased by 0'730 ℃ in an echelon during 1903_2000, the seasonal warming extent was dissimilarity, the maximum of warming was in the winter and the minimum of warming was in the summer. The decline trend of the index of ice concentration in the vicinity seas of Antarctic Peninsula was (-0.2053)\5(10a)^(-1), which in the summer half year (Dec-May) was much more obvious than that in the winter half year (Jun-Nov). There is a better negative relationship between the temperature and the ice concentration index in Antarctic Peninsula and its vicinity seas, with a correlation coefficient exceeding the significance level of 5% in summer, autumn and all the year round.