经济发展、结构变化与“货币消失”——兼对“中国之谜”的再解释

Economic Development, Structure Change and “Missing Money”: A Reconsideration for “Chinese Riddle”

2 0世纪 90年代中后期以来 ,中国的“超额”货币供给与宏观经济运行表现出了新的特点。本文试图利用发展经济学方法 ,从“货币消失”问题入手 ,对这一时期经济增长、货币供给与通货膨胀之间的关系进行解释。我们发现 ,中国经济的两部门特点导致了阻碍经济发展的“结构约束”与“需求约束”。而“中国之谜”出现的新特点 ,很大程度上正是经济运行内在机制的变化在货币方面的反映。

Since latter half of the 1990's, the phenomenon of “overplus” money supply and macroeconomic situation have occurred some new characteristics in China. Using development economics methods, this paper studies the problem of “missing money”, and analyses the relationship of economic growth, money supply and inflation in this period. We find that two sector economy structure cause the “structural constraints” and “demand constraints”, hindering economic development. We think that the new characteristics of “Chinese Riddle” and “missing money” stem from the internal change of macroeconomic mechanism.