中国四元经济下的人口迁移——理论、现状和实证分析

The china's population transfer under the four-dimension economy

本文从发展经济学中刘易斯、托达罗等人的基本理论出发 ,结合中国的农业剩余劳动力转移的特点 ,提出了理论假设 :中国的劳动力转移是在传统农业、农村非农行业、城市正规行业和城市非正规行业这个四部门下进行的。利用Logit模型的一个推广 ,结合 1990年和 1995年中国省际人口迁移数据 ,本文采用回归分析的方法 ,对以上假设进行了检验 ;讨论了城市正规部门、城市非正规部门和农村非农业部门对中国农村剩余劳动力转移中的贡献 ,以及外向型经济、失业、收入、人口规模、人口密度、距离诸因素的作用及其演化过程 ;

Based on the fundamental theories of Lewis' and Todaro's development economics and combining with thee characteristics of the China's surplus rural laborers' transfer, this paper has raised a theoretical hypothesis:the transfer of China's labor force has been underway among the sectors of the traditional agriculture,the rural non\|agricultural trade,the urban formal industry and informal industry.Based on an expansive Logit model and combining with the data of China's population movement among the provinces in 1990 and 1995,the article has tested the hypothesis using regressive method and discussed the contributions of the urban formal and informal industrial sectors and the rural non\|agricultural trade to the transfer of China's rural surplus labor force.It has also discussed the role of export\|oriented economy,unemployment,income,the size of population,density of population,the distance,etc.and its evolving process.The article also gives and analysis on the questions and prospects that face the China's population transfer in future.