中国地质灾害减灾战略初步研究

Initial study on the hazard-relief strategy of geological hazard in China

论文简要回顾了我国近年来地质灾害减灾基本情况,指出了地灾减灾目前面临的主要问题:潜在灾害体的早期识辨差,"灾后"研究普遍;西部地区大开发中突发性地质灾害问题突出;东部地面沉降等缓变地质灾害问题严重;地质灾害基础理论和防灾技术落后等。参照联合国提出的国际减灾战略和美国制定的滑坡减灾国家战略,对我国制定21世纪初地质灾害减灾战略提出初步建议。①开展地灾风险区划,并作为国家减灾强制性标准加以实施,建立减灾科学体系,加强综合减灾能力建设,从对国家、区域、城市、乡村的承灾载体出发,依靠科技进步,建立并逐步完善地质灾害监测预报群专结合体系;②提高崩、滑、流突发性地质灾害的监测预报水平,开展国家和省级气象-地质灾害预警,开展县级地质灾害预报;全面建成地面沉降等缓变地质灾害现代化监测控制网络,实施以控制地面沉降为目标的含水层修复工程;③对本世纪全面实施的中国城市化进程与都市圈建设、中国西部大开发、中国小城镇建设、重大生命线工程等推动中华民族社会经济进程的关键战略分层次进行全面的综合减灾对策战略研究、减灾规划和减灾措施的实施;④全面提高我国地质灾害减灾应急快速反应能力,建立综合型救援专家技术型队伍,加大地质灾害应急处置技术指导力度。

This paper briefly overviews the basic situation of the geological hazard control in recent years in China, and points out the main problems confronting the geological hazard control task: poor primitive recognition of catastrophic body and wide post-hazard study, the sudden geological hazard problems in the west geological development, the severe slowacting geological hazards in the East China, such as the ground subsidence, etc., the behindhand basic theory and hazard control technology for the geological hazards and so on.Consulting the international hazard control strategy given by the UN and the national slope sliding hazard control strategy established by America, this paper gives the initial suggestions for the establishment of the geological hazard control strategy in the early 21^(st) century, and the five suggestions for the geological hazard control goal in China include: ① to make the risk region divisions for the geological hazard and to implement such measures as a national compulsory standard for the hazard control, to establish the scientific systems for the hazard control and strengthen the construction of the comprehensive hazard-control ability, and then to establish and better the geological hazard people-and-expert monitoring and forecasting system based on the scientific progress according to the actual situation of the hazard bearing body of the country, region, city and village; ② to improve the monitoring and forecasting levels for the sudden geological hazards, such as the collapses, sliding slopes, debris flows and so on, to carry out the meteorologic geological hazard forecasts in the country and each province and the geological hazard forecast in the county, to establish the complete modem monitoring and controlling network for the slowacting geological hazards, such as the surface subsidence, to carry out the water-bearing layer maintenance project for controlling the surface subsidence; ③ to make the thorough and comprehensive hazard-relief countermeasure strategy study, hazard-relief plans and measures in different levels for the City Building Plans in China, the West Development, the Building of the Small Town, the Vital Life Project and other very important projects, which shall greatly push forward the economic conditions of China; ④ to improve the quick-reaction capability to prevent and control the geological hazards in China, to establish a comprehensive rescuing professional team, to strengthen the strength to direct the emergency technologies for the geological hazards, to improve the consciousness and skills of the people to prevent the hazards and protect themselves, to ensure the sufficient mediums and spots for the hazard-relief education; ⑤ After the comprehensive hazard control, to make the incidence rate of the geological hazards in China and the property loss drop markedly, the life hurts and loss to decrease by 70%, that is to say, the death number of over 1000 in 2003 will drop to less than 300,and the anticipative hazard incidence rate and the property loss will be reduced by 50%, from present over 10 billion to less than 5 billion.