摘要
灰色模型在社会科学、自然科学的许多方面已得到广泛的应用,并取得了一系列重大成果。在滑坡地质灾害研究方面,灰色模型多用于滑坡变形的中长期预测预报,且精度较高。文章在介绍分析了灰色预测模型GM(1,1)的基本原理基础上,开发了用VB语言编写的滑坡位移灰色预测软件,解决了笔算困难问题。实例验证了该模型用于预测滑坡位移值的适用性及软件的可靠性。VB编程能够很好地与其它软件(GIS软件)集成,在其它专业软件中使用,有聋于滑坡地质灾害的研究。
Grey system theory is a new cross course founded by Chinese famous scholar DENG Ju-long in 1982.The grey model has been applied extensively and gained a series of significant achievement in many fields of natural science and social science.It was used in displacement prediction in slope or landslide and had high accuracy in geologic hazard study.In the paper grey system model GM(1,1) is presented and compiled by Visual Basic programming to solve the difficult problem calculation.This model has been used in example to predict displacement value of landslide.The results prove that this model is suitable and reliable.Therefore,the method can be used in real engineering.
出处
《中国地质灾害与防治学报》
CSCD
2004年第2期85-88,共4页
The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control
基金
国家"十五"攻关课题〈基于 3S的地质灾害灾情评估体系研究〉 (2 0 0 1BA90 1A3 7)前期基础部分
关键词
灰色预测
VB
GM(1
1)模型
滑坡
Grey prediction system
VB programming
GM(1,1) model
landslide
management system
