理解货币政策:新凯恩斯主义观点

Understanding Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian View

本文试图用新凯恩斯主义的货币经济模型来理解中国货币政策。模型及其估计结果表明,至少在现阶段,以货币供应量为中介目标的货币政策仍然是适用的,而泰勒规则类的利率规则并不适用于现阶段的货币政策。模型及检验结果还表明,在我国经济中存在着较大的名义刚性,由于名义刚性的存在,供给冲击不是影响通货膨胀波动的主要因素,影响产出波动和通货膨胀波动的主要冲击来自需求方面的家庭偏好及实际货币余额的变化。经济中存在的名义刚性对理解从需求方面来调节货币供应量的货币政策有重要意义。

This paper attempts to elaborate China's monetary policy in a new Keynesian monetary economic model. The model and estimated result show that, at present at least, the monetary policy which set monetary supply as intermediate target is still suitable. Instead, the interest rate such as Taylor rules is not good instrument rule. The model and its result also show that there is a great nominal rigidity in China's economy from which supply shock is not main factors resulting in inflation movement. The movements of inflation and economic outputs is mainly due to changes of household's utility and real money balances. The nominal rigidity has an important role in understanding the monetary policy that responds to changes of demands.