中国农业信贷与农业GDP(1978～2001)——一个Granger因果关系检验

Agri-credit and agri-GDP in China (1978-2001)——a Granger causality test

信贷资金一直是中国农业资金最重要的来源之一 ,误差修正模型对 1978～ 2 0 0 1年间中国农业GDP与农业信贷作出了Granger因果关系检验。结果表明 ,中国农业GDP与农业信贷存在显著的协整关系 ,并且无论是长期还是短期 ,农业信贷都是农业GDP的Granger原因 。

Based on co-integration analysis and the error correction model, the Granger causality of agri-GDP and agri-credit in China (1978-2001) is tested. The result shows a co-integration relationship between agri-GDP and agri-credit. In both the long run and the short run, agri-credit is agri-GDP's Granger cause, which indicates that agri-loans have an important effect on agri-development.