敏感性分析在林业经营决策中的应用

The Application of Sensitivity Analysis in Forest Management Decision

敏感性分析是项目投资中的一种风险分析技术。根据调查资料,分析了3个树种7个经营类型的总收益最佳值,在此基础上分别对影响总收益的造林成本、平均年成本、贴现率、价格做了敏感性分析。分析结果,总结规律,并在林业经营决策中提出了相应对策,以期降低经营风险。

Sensitivity analysis is a kind of risk analysis technology in the project investment. According to the survey,the optimum value about the total income of seven management types concerning three kinds of trees was analyzrd.Based on this, sensitivity analysis was done separately on factors which influence the total income mentioned above.Such factors included costs of afforestation,average costs per year,discount rates and prices. After analyzing the study results,this paper concluded and found out some laws,and further put forward the corresponding countermeasures in forest management decision hoping to reduce the management risks.