上海市住宅两级市场之间价格关系的检验分析

Test for Relationship Between Commercial Housing Sales Price and Existing Property Bargain Price in Shanghai

应用协整检验和葛兰杰因果关系检验法,研究了上海市2001～2003年住宅一级市场(住宅开发、销售市场)与二级市场(存量房交易市场)之间价格的关系.研究结果表明,上海市商品住宅销售价格与存量房交易价格之间不存在长期稳定关系,但是滞后期数不同时,两者之间存在不同的因果关系.

Using cointegration relationship test and Granger causality test, some conclusions about relationship between commercial housing sale price and existing property bargain price in Shanghai are obtained. Commercial housing sale price is the dominant factor of existing property bargain price in short run while existing property bargain price is explanatory variable of commercial sales price in long run. The sample of month price indexes of commercial housing and existing property from 2001 to 2003 is given.