主成分回归模型在油松毛虫种群动态中的应用

Application of a Regression Model for the Principal Component of Population Dynamics of the Chinese Pine Caterpillar

本文根据油松毛虫幼虫转移生境的特性,将其越冬过程分解为上树阶段和下树阶段.首先通过主成分分析,寻找出影响越冬幼虫种群数量变动的关键因子主要是越冬幼虫生境的温度和空气中的相对湿度.在此基础上,通过主成分回归建立数学模型,预测越冬幼虫种群数量,为制定油松毛虫防治策略提供准确的虫情报告.

Based on the characteristic of moving the habitat of the hibernating larvae of the Chinese pine caterpillar,the hibernating process is divided into the period of the larvae climbing up the tree and the period of the larvae climbing down the tree.First,by the principal component analysis the key factors affecting the population dynamics of the hibernating larvae are the temperature and the relative humidity of the habitat.Second based on this analysis,a mathematical model to forecast the abundance of hibernating larvae has been established using a regression analysis for the principal components.Thus accurate information about the occurrence of the Chinese pine caterpillar can be provided by using the regression equation.This will aid in designing strategies of control