我国R&D科学家工程师规模预测

A forecast on the number of R&D scientists and engineers in China

本研究采用时间外推与目标增长两种模型预测我国 2 0 2 0年R&D科学家工程师总人数 ,并对两种模型预测结果的差异作了分析。研究认为 ,时间外推模型侧重科学家工程师的质量 ,目标增长模型侧重数量 ;时间外推模型侧重发挥国家导向作用的日本和欧盟模式 。

This research forecasts the total number of R&D scientists and engineers in the year 2020 in China with both natural growth model and object-based growth model. Natural growth model extrapolates the result with the time-series of the number of R&D scientists and engineers from the year1991 to 2001. The number predicted is 1 058 million. Object-based growth model takes GDP and R&D expenditure into account, getting the result 2 99 million. This paper also predicts the size and structure of R&D scientists and engineers in research institutions and higher education sectors, using selected samples of the developed countries.