城市防震减灾能力评估研究

STUDY ON EVALUATION OF CITIES′ ABILITY REDUCING EARTHQUAKE DISASTERS

城市防震减灾能力本身是一个涉及因素众多的复杂体系 ,对它的评估也是涉及到地震科学、社会科学和经济科学的交叉学科问题 .本文首先提出了城市防震减灾能力的概念 ,把人员伤亡、经济损失和震后恢复时间等 3个方面作为衡量城市防震减灾能力的准则 ;围绕这3个准则 ,从影响城市防震减灾能力的众多复杂因素中抽取出六大因素 ,并用一些简单、可测量的指标来代表这六大因素 ,建立起城市防震减灾能力指标体系 ;然后建立起指标体系与上述 3个方面评价准则人员伤亡、经济损失和恢复时间的联系 ;最后 ,用灰色关联分析方法将 3个评价准则综合成一个防震减灾能力指数 .从而为城市防震减灾能力评估提供了一个较系统、完整的理论体系框架 .理论体系的建立能够在绝对上、定量上评价城市的防震减灾能力 。

Cities′ ability reducing earthquake disasters is a complex system involving numerous factors, moreover the research on evaluating cities′ ability reducing earthquake disasters relates to multi subject, such as earthquake science, social science, economical science and so on. In this paper, firstly, the conception of cities′ ability reducing earthquake disasters is presented, and the ability could be evaluated with three basic elements the possible seismic casualty and economic loss during the future earthquakes that are likely to occur in the city and its surroundings and time required for recovery after earthquake; based upon these three basic elements, a framework, which consists of six main components, for evaluating city′s ability reducing earthquake disasters is proposed; then the statistical relations between the index system and the ratio of seismic casualty, the ratio of economic loss and recovery time are gained utilizing the cities′ prediction results of earthquake disasters which were made during the ninth five year plan; at last, the method defining the comprehensive index of cities′ ability reducing earthquake disasters is presented. Thus the relatively comprehensive theory frame is set up. The frame can evaluate cities′ ability reducing earthquake disasters absolutely and quantitatively and consequently instruct the decision making on reducing cities′ earthquake disasters loss.