摘要
应用马尔科夫链数学模型 ,在时间尺度上对吉林省旱涝灾害特征和地域组合规律的动态变化进行了分析 ,认为“东涝西旱”是吉林省的优势状态 ,“全省旱”状态较活跃 ,稳定性较差 ,置换性较强 ,它和其它状态之间的关系较为密切 ,“全省均不出现旱涝灾害”状态在演化过程中较稳定 ,活跃性差。各状态具有一定的周期性。本研究为吉林省制定减灾。
We analyzed the characteristics of drought and flood disasters and the dynamic change of regional combinational law on temporal scale in Jilin Province by using Markov Chain Model. The conclusion was drawn that flood in the Eastern Jilin and drought in the Western Jilin were a preponderant state, while drought in the whole Jilin Province was in an active state with a less stability, a strong replacement and a strong relation with other states. The state of no occurrence of drought and flood disaster in the whole Jilin Province was relative stable in the changed process with less activity. Every state changed periodically. The results showed in this paper had provided a scientific basis for decision making in the disaster reduction, prevention and control in Jilin Province.
出处
《中国农业气象》
CSCD
2004年第2期5-8,共4页
Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology
基金
吉林省科委资助项目 :吉林省气象灾害及其中长期预测 (990 5 37)
