山西省介休县洪山泉流量动态系统分析

Dynamic System Analysis for the Flux of the HongShan Spring

为查明洪山泉域人为开采量的开采程度 ,在前人研究基础上建立了现阶段泉流量 -降雨量的线性模拟模型。通过对模型的系统辨识 ,对系统的“慢时变”现象作出了合理解释 ,并发现系统在 1994年以后发生了“快时变” ,从而说明人为开采量从 1995年开始迅猛增加 ;另一方面 ,自相关分析表明其宏观周期基本不变 ,说明人为开采量还没有达到足以改变其宏观频率的程度。也就是说 ,现在开始抓好该地区水资源的管理工作还为时不晚。

In order to find out degree of the artificial exploited water quantityin Hongshan Spring, the linearspring’s flux-rainfall simulation modelat present is set up on basis of formerstudy. Though system identificationto this model, the phenomenathat the system slowly changed with time is explained reasonablyand that the system rapidly changed with time is after 1994 . consequentlyit is considered that the artificial exploited water quantitybegan increasing rapidly from 1995. On the other hand, self-correlation analysisof spring's flux indicated that macroscopical cycledidn't change by and largeand the rapid increace of the artificial exploited water quantityisn't enough to change macroscopical frequencyof Hongshan Spring.