福建水口水库诱发地震最大震级预测

The prediction of the maximum magnitude of induced earthquake in the Shuikou reservoir of Fujian province

福建水口水库于 1993年 3月下闸蓄水 ,同年 5月 2 3日发生首次诱发地震 ,迄今已超过 14 0 0次 ,其中最大地震为 1996年 4月 2 1日ML4 1地震。水口水库能诱发多大震级的地震一直是人们关心的话题。本文根据国内外已发生水库诱发地震震例资料 ,结合水口库区的具体情况 ,应用概率预测法、综合影响参数预测法、两级模糊评判法、古登堡—里克特公式外推预测法、发育断裂长度预测震级法、历史地震最高震级预测法等方法 ,对水口水库可能诱发的最大震级进行预测研究。综合结果认为 :水口水库有可能诱发最大 5 0级地震。

The Shuikou reservoir began to impound in March 1993,and the first induced earthquake is recorded in May 1993.Up to now, more than one thousand and four hundred earthquakes are recorded. Among them, the largest one is M L4.1 in April 1996. The seismic trend in the area is public concerned about. In the paper, the maximum magnitude of the induced earthquakes in the Shuikou reservoir is discussed based on other earthquake instances. In order to predict the magnitude of earthquakes, many methods are applied, such as, probabilistic evaluation, comprehensive effect parameter E evaluation, two-step comprehensive fuzzy evaluation, the maximum magnitude of historical earthquake evaluation. As a result, it is considered that the earthquake with maximum magnitude M S5.0 may be induced by Shuikou reservoir.