中国金融中介发展与地区经济增长:多变量VAR系统分析

Financial Intermediation and Regional Economic Growth: the Multi-variable VAR System Research

本文利用我国1988-2002年的时间序列数据,对国内现有研究未能解决的地区间金融中介发展与经济增长的相关关系及因果关系问题进行分析。通过运用多变量VAR系统的研究表明:金融中介的规模指标和效率指标与经济增长在各地区间的因果关系不一致,这与地区间经济发展水平的差异有直接关系,中西部地区的金融中介机构为更好地促进本地区经济增长应该扩大对非国有企业的贷款。

This paper uses the time series data from 1988 to 2002 to analyze the problem of correlation and causality between financial intermediation and economic growth in Chinese regional area. The research employs three variable VAR systems and the result shows that in different regions the causality of scale and efficiency index between financial intermediation and economic growth is different because of the differentials of regional economic development. Finally, the authors suggest that the financial intermediation in west of China should expand the credit to private enterprises to promote the economic growth better.