防洪风险分析中改进的组合分布模型研究

Research on Improved Combinatorial Distribution Model in the Risk Analysis of Flood Control

洪水变量分布的选择是防洪风险分析中的一个重要工作 ,目前常用 P- 分布来描述洪水的随机特性 .建立在组合分布模型的基础上 ,本文提出了改进的组合分布模型 ,给出了不同情况下求最优分界点的模型 .实例计算表明 ,改进的组合分布模型在理论和应用上都优于原始分布 。

Choosing of flood variable′s distribution is an important work in the risk analysis of flood control. The P Ⅲ distribution is often used at present. On the basis of conbinatorial distribution, this thesis presents the improved combinatorial distribution model and gives the model of optimum demarcation point under different conditions, example′s calculation shows that it is better than initial distribution in theory and application. It can accurately reflect flood′s risk.