气候变暖对黑龙江省作物生产的影响及其对策

Effect of climate warming on crop production in Heilongjiang Province and its countermeasures

黑龙江省在未来30年和50年内气温分别增高1.9℃和2.4℃的情景下,积温带将向北推移近5个纬距,至2050年,原第一积温带将北移至大兴安岭北部,其余4个积温带将基本消失。模拟结果显示,未来水稻将减产9%,主栽区将北移至黑龙江流域;小麦应压缩耕作面积,未来产量变化不大,应逐步扩大冬小麦试种区域,最后达到规模生产;气候变暖使玉米生育期缩短11.3天,产量减少2.7%,应发展早熟玉米、饲料玉米、经济玉米,提高经济效益;气候变暖对大豆生产极为有利,高产区北移,产量可提高70%～80%,在黑龙江流域松嫩和三江平原北部,特别垦区发展大豆生产优势很大;喜凉经济作物受到一定影响,应向北发展。提出了未来适应性农业的6项对策,特别要安排好主要作物的结构调整及区域分布。

With the temperature increase of 1.9℃ and 2.4℃ over the next 30 and 50 years, accumulated temperature zone will be moved northward by 5 latitude distances. By 2050, original first accumulated temperature zone will be moved to the northern Daxinganling, and the other four will disappear. The result of simulation shows that rice yield will decrease 9%, and the main planting area will move to Heilong River Basin. The area planting wheat should be decreased. There will not be significant change on yields of wheat in the future. The planting area of winter wheat should be expanded to reach a large-scale production.Climate warming decreases the corn breeding period by (11.3) days, and the yields by 2.7%. Early matured corn, feed corn and industrial corn should be developed to increase profits. Soybean production benefits from climate warming. Its high-yield region is moving to north, with the yield increasing by 70% to 80%.In northern Songnen and Sanjiang plains of Heilong River Basin, there is significant advantage for planting soybean. Cool-loving industrial crops will be affected in certain degree. It should be planted northward. At the end, this paper recommends 6 items of countermeasures in adjustment of agriculture in the future, especially in structure adjustment and regional distribution of the main crop.