湖北省历史时期洪、旱灾害统计特征分析

Statistical properties analysis of flood and drought calamities in historical period of Hubei Province

基于近2000年来的历史资料,对湖北省历史时期洪、旱灾害的统计特征及其演变规律进行了分析。结果表明:湖北省历史时期的洪、旱灾害经历了"少灾时期、增多时期与多灾时期"3个阶段,灾害出现的频率和影响的范围均呈增大趋势;洪旱灾害的空间分布呈现"洪水连江,干旱依山"的特点;洪旱灾害发生的季节集中性较强,中、大区域性洪水灾害集中在6-7月的梅雨季节,具有"梅汛"的特点,而旱灾以夏旱为多、春秋旱次之,严重的旱情多具有跨季节性的特点;总的来看,历史时期的洪旱灾害系交替进行,洪灾多于并重于旱灾。

Based on the historical data for the latest 2000 years, this paper discusses the statistical properties of the flood and drought disasters in Hubei Province. The results show that the developmental history of disaster has gone through three periods with few calamities,increasing calamity and much calamity respectively.The frequency that the calamity has appeared and the scope that the disaster has affected have a notable trend to increase. The spatial distribution of the calamities characters that the flood areas occur along the river and the arid areas distribute near the hill. The concentricity of the flood and drought disasters in season is stronger, especially, regional middle and large flood calamity appear in the raining season of June-July. As a whole, the historical floods is heavier than the historical droughts.