东北地区水稻热量指数预测模型

Forecasting models of heat index for rice in Northeast China

利用1961-2000年的逐月气温资料,计算了东北地区3省和全区水稻的热量指数。通过对热量指数和大气环流资料的统计分析,建立了6个预测水稻热量指数的预测模型和1个集成模型,各模型都能较好地预测东北地区各省及全区的水稻生长发育期间的热量状况。检验结果表明,所有模型的准确率较高,且稳定性较好。7个模型预测辽宁省、黑龙江省、吉林省和全区水稻热量指数的平均准确率都在90%以上,其中辽宁省的准确率最高,都在97%以上,预测效果最好,黑龙江省的平均准确率最小,但也都在91%以上。从不同类型的模型来看,集成模型的预测效果最好,准确率最高。

Using the mean monthly air temperature from 1961 to 2000, the rice heat index in 3 provinces and whole Northeast China is calculated. Based on the statistic analysis between rice heat index and atmospheric circulation data, 6 forecast models and 1 integrate model of the rice heat index are set up. Each model can be used to forecast heat status in growth and development period of rice in each province and whole Northeast China. Test shows that the accuracy of all models is higher and the stability is preferable. The mean accuracy of 7 models is higher than 90%. In which, the highest accuracy is for Liaoning Province, the mean value is higher than 97%, and the forecast effect is best. The lowest accuracy is for Heilongjiang Province, and the mean value is also higher than 91%. Seeing from the different models, the forecast effect of integrated model is best, and the accuracy is highest.