中国各地区人均GDP的马尔可夫预测及变动分析

Markov Forecast of Per Capita GDP in Each Part of China andAnalysis Variation

首先将中国各地区的人均GDP情况划分为5种状态,然后使用Markov方法建立一个预测中国各地区人均GDP在10年后和20年后发展状况的分析模型,利用此模型对中国各地区人均GDP的演化和变化情况进行了科学地分析和预测,它对研究中国各地区的经济发展和保持各地区经济发展的均衡,实施宏观调控具有一定的参考价值。

The paper divides the Chinese areas into kinds according to their per capita GDP at first,then uses Markov method to set up a predictive models for per capita GDP in every part of China in 10 years and 15 years. We utilize the model to analyze and predict evolution and development of every area of China's Mainland, which will have reference value for studying the economic development and equilibrium of every area of our country, furthermore, it has certain reference value for implementing macro adjustment and control.