基于模糊层次评价法的PPP项目风险评价研究

Research on PPP Project Risk Evaluation Based on Fuzzy Hierarchical Evaluation Process

本文通过对PPP项目风险因素体系进行了分析,建立了评价标准和决策准则,将模糊数学评价法与层次分析法相结合形成了模糊层次评价法(F-AHP)。运用模糊层次评价法对PPP项目的政治政策风险、经济风险、环境风险、项目建设风险和管理风险等风险因素进行定性分析及定量分析研究,准确地计算出案例中各风险因素评价指标的评价得分和总体风险评价得分,并确定PPP项目风险大小,为PPP项目的风险决策提供了依据。因此模糊层次评价法是对PPP项目进行风险评价行之有效的方法。

This paper analyses the risk factor system of PPP projects, establishes evaluation criteria and de-cision-making criteria, and combines fuzzy mathematical evaluation method with analytic hier-archy process to form the fuzzy hierarchical evaluation method (F-AHP). This paper uses the method of Fuzzy Hierarchical Assessment to make qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis of risk factors such as political policy risk, economic risk, environmental risk, project construction risk and management risk of PPP project. It accurately calculates the evaluation score of each risk factor evaluation index and the overall risk evaluation score in the case, and determines the size of the PPP project risk, provides the basis for risk decision-making of PPP project. Therefore, Fuzzy Hierarchical Evaluation method is an effective method for risk evaluation of PPP projects.