摘要
2019年12月,COVID-19疫情从武汉开始爆发,并迅速蔓延,隔离疑似人员和确诊病例是一种有效的防控措施。因此,在本文我们将隔离的确诊患者作为一个仓室,建立了一类隐性感染者和潜伏期患者均具有传染性的SEICAR传染病模型。通过分析各参数对控制再生数和地方病平衡点的灵敏性,提出了三个有效的控制策略。研究结果表明考虑隐性感染者以及潜伏期患者的传染性能够较准确地评估控制再生数,为制定更科学的疫情防控方案提供参考。
In December 2019, the outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) began in Wuhan and quickly spread. China has adopted prevention and control measures to isolate suspected persons and confirmed cases. Here, we establish an SEICAR epidemic model, in which both infectious patients and latent patients are infectious. Through sensitivity analyses of each parameter to the control reproduction number and the endemic equilibrium, three effective control strategies are proposed. The results indicate that, if considering the infectivity of the latently infected and asymptomatic patients, the control reproduction number can be more accurately assessed, furthermore, that will provide a more scientific reference for making prevention and control policies.
出处
《应用数学进展》
2020年第5期700-707,共8页
Advances in Applied Mathematics
基金
国家自然科学基金(11701026)
北京市自然科学基金(8194058)。
