用预期寿命预测中国未来人口死亡率

Using Life Expectancy to Predict China’s Future Population Mortality

人口预期寿命与死亡率之间存在高度相关性,LL (Liner-Link,即线性关系)模型对这种相关性进行度量,提高了预测精度。本文将五种二项式死亡率模型与LL模型进行对比研究,依据我国台湾人口死亡率资料对LL模型进行检验,用大陆人口历史死亡率数据进行参数估计并预测未来死亡状况趋势,且进行死亡率改善水平度量,发现死亡率随时间推移而改善。

There is a high correlation between the life expectancy of the population and the mortality rate. The LL (Liner-Link) model measures this correlation and improves the prediction accuracy. This paper compares the five binomial mortality models with the LL model. The LL model is tested based on the mortality data of Taiwan’s population. The historical mortality data of the mainland population is used to estimate the parameters and predict the future mortality trends. And the mortality rate improvement level was measured, it was found that the mortality rate improved over time.