重大疫情下公众参与、政府监管与防疫物资谣言治理演化博弈研究

Research on Evolutionary Game of Public Participation, Government Supervision and Epidemic Prevention Materials Rumor Governance under Major Epidemic Situation

[目的/意义]:重大疫情下防疫物资谣言严重扰乱了市场秩序,给政府疫情防控带来巨大挑战,加强重大疫情下防疫物资谣言治理,对完善我国重大疫情防控体制机制具有积极意义。[方法/过程]:构建了政府、公众、造谣团伙三方演化博弈模型,分析了谣言免疫力、网络舆情无序度以及政府支持力度对相关主体策略的影响,并进行了数值仿真。[结果/结论]:公众谣言免疫力对三方策略选择的影响与网络舆情无序度有着直接关系;若网络舆情无序演化造成的公信力损失与治理成本持续增大,政府会选择积极监管,相较于治理成本增加,公信力的损失对政府的影响更大;政府的支持能够鼓励公众参与谣言治理,抑制造谣团伙造谣,在政府支持力度较强的基础上合理的惩罚机制能使造谣者策略演化至不造谣状态,研究结论为政府部门在面对重大疫情防疫物资谣言治理提供了新思路。

[Purpose/Significance]: The rumor of epidemic prevention materials seriously disturbs the market order and brings great challenges to the government's epidemic prevention and control. Strengthening the control of rumor of epidemic prevention materials under major epidemic situation is of positive significance to improve the system and mechanism of major epidemic prevention and control in China. [Method/Process]: This paper constructs a tripartite evolutionary game model of government, public and rumor making groups, analyzes the influence of rumor immunity, disorder degree of network public opinion and government support on the strategies of relevant subjects, and carries out numerical simulation. [Result/Conclusion]: The impact of public rumor immunity on the choice of three strategies under major epidemic situation is directly related to the disorder degree of network public opinion;if the loss of credibility and the cost of governance caused by the disordered evolution of Internet public opinion continue to increase, the government will choose to actively supervise. Compared with the increase of the cost of governance, the loss of credibility has a greater impact on the government;government support can encourage the public to participate in rumor governance. On the basis of strong government support, reasonable punishment mechanism can make the strategy of rumor makers evolve to a state of no rumor making. The research conclusion provides a new idea for government departments to deal with rumor making of epidemic prevention materials in the face of major epidemic.