媒体活动对戒毒影响的SIT模型的定性分析

Qualitative Analysis of the SIT Model of Media Campaigns on Drug Rehabilitation

本文构建了一个易感–吸毒–治疗的SIT模型,用来研究媒体活动对隔离治疗的吸毒人群的戒毒影响。利用基本再生数R0研究了模型的动力学行为。通过敏感性分析与数值模拟得出结论,媒体活动不能改变系统平衡点的存在性与稳定性,但增加媒体活动的数量并提高媒体活动宣传率可以减少吸毒人数。要想控制吸毒人数,适当加强媒体报道的宣传是至关重要的。增加媒体活动还可增强隔离治疗的吸毒者成功戒毒后对毒品诱惑的抵制力,本文第5部分综合考虑多个因素之后给出了一个抵制力参数的定义。

The Susceptible-Infected-Treated SIT model was constructed in this paper to study the effects of media campaigns on drug rehabilitation in isolation treatment drug users. The dynamical behavior of the model was studied by using the basic reproduction number R0. Through sensitivity analysis and numerical simulation, it is concluded that media campaigns cannot change the stabilities of the equilibria, but increasing the number of media activities and increasing the publicity rate can reduce the number of drug users. To control the number of drug users, media coverage is crucial. Increasing media campaigns can also enhance the resistance to drug temptation after drug rehabilitation. Part 5 gives a definition of parameter of resistance after considering multiple factors comprehensively.