基于健康人力资本下江浙沪皖经济效率评价

Economic Efficiency of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui Based on Health Human Capital

目的:为促进经济健康合理增长、资源合理配置,以达到人民生活水平及生活质量进一步提高。方法:运用数据包络分析法(data envelopment analysis, DEA)对江浙沪皖及全国的经济效率进行评价,采用偏相关分析法探讨健康人力资本与经济增长之间的关系,最后用灰色预测GM(1,1)预测出江浙沪皖及全国2020年~2030年GDP、人均GDP、就业人口以及其经济效率。结果:四个省份及全国的经济效率在总体上比较好。从2000年至2019年,全国的平均经济效率为0.988,其中就江苏、浙江、上海三省的平均经济效率在全国平均水平之上,安徽省在平均水平之下;健康人力资本在总产出水平、技术进步水平、物质资本,劳动与经济增长的相关性中起到桥梁作用;未来十一年中江苏、浙江、上海三省的经济效率均有效,安徽省的有效率为91%。结论:受到地区经济发展不均衡及资源利用不均匀的影响,东部沿海地区的经济效率明显高于中部地区,在注重物质资本积累的同时,要增加对健康医疗的投入,教育投入,以促进京东部与中西部地区协同发展,并且要完善区域医疗资源的保障体系,提高居民健康保健意识,以增强健康人力资本对经济增长的促进作用。

Purpose: The passage is to promote healthy and reasonable economic growth and rational allocation of resources, so as to achieve the people’s living standards and further improve the quality of life. Method: Data envelopment analysis (DEA) was used to evaluate the economic efficiency of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Anhui and the whole country. Partial correlation analysis was used to explore the relationship between healthy human capital and economic growth. Finally, gray forecast GM(1,1) was used to predict the GDP, per capita GDP, employment population and economic efficiency of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai and Anhui and the whole country from 2020 to 2030. Result: The overall economic efficiency of the four provinces and the whole country is relatively good. From 2000 to 2019, the national average economic efficiency was 0.988. Among them, the average economic efficiency of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai was above the national average, and Anhui was below the average;healthy human capital was at the total output level. The level of technological progress, material capital, and the correlation between labor and economic growth play a role as a bridge;in the next 11 years, the economic efficiency of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai will all be effective, and the effective rate of Anhui Province is 91%. Conclusion: Affected by the uneven regional economic development and uneven resource utilization, the economic efficiency of the eastern coastal area is significantly higher than that of the central region. While paying attention to material capital accumulation, it is necessary to increase investment in health care and education to promote the eastern part of Beijing, develop in coordination with the central and western regions, and improve the security system of regional medical resources, raise residents’ awareness of health care, so as to enhance the role of healthy human capital in promoting economic growth.